The Michigan Senate race is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched contests of the 2026 midterms, with Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed separated by just one percentage point in a new poll.
According to a new AARP survey of likely Michigan voters, El-Sayed narrowly leads Rogers 48 percent to 47 percent, putting the race firmly within the margin of error and signaling a competitive battle for the Senate seat.
The numbers become more encouraging for Rogers among older voters, a key voting bloc in Michigan. Among voters aged 50 and over, Rogers leads El-Sayed 52 percent to 43 percent.
The Republican's advantage grows substantially among older swing voters—those who do not consistently vote for one party. In that group, Rogers holds a 33-point advantage over El-Sayed.
That demographic could prove decisive in November.
The AARP survey found that older voters are also more motivated to participate in the election. Eighty-six percent of voters aged 50 and over described themselves as extremely motivated to vote, compared with 71 percent of voters between 18 and 49.
The Senate contest is not the only competitive statewide race in Michigan. The poll found Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jocelyn Benson leading Republican Rep. John James 49 percent to 44 percent among likely voters. However, James holds a one-point advantage among voters 50 and older.
Rogers Within Striking Distance
The latest numbers follow other polling showing the Michigan Senate race remains highly competitive.
A recent Fox News survey gave Rogers a 51-47 percent advantage over El-Sayed, while an EPIC-MIRS poll conducted in late July showed Rogers leading 46-43 percent.
The consistency of the polling suggests Michigan could become a critical battleground in determining control of the U.S. Senate.
Rogers, a former congressman and former FBI agent, has made El-Sayed's progressive record a central focus of his campaign, portraying the Democratic nominee as far outside the political mainstream.
El-Sayed, meanwhile, has embraced support from prominent figures on the progressive left as he attempts to mobilize Democratic voters across Michigan.
With the two candidates now separated by only one percentage point in the AARP survey, the November contest is likely to be fought heavily over independent and swing voters.
Why Michigan Matters
Michigan's Senate seat is being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, making the race a major Republican pickup opportunity.
For Republicans, defeating El-Sayed would provide an important opportunity to strengthen their position in the Senate. For Democrats, holding the seat is critical to their efforts to maintain or regain control of the chamber.
The AARP survey was conducted August 9-11 among 877 likely Michigan voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
With the race effectively tied, Michigan voters—particularly the state's highly motivated older and independent voters—could play a pivotal role in determining who represents the state in the U.S. Senate.
The Michigan Senate race is officially one to watch.
